Newsletter 2019

The S&P 500 rose 32% for 2019. Looking at data back to 1926, that was the 18th best year for the stock market, placing it in the top 20% of annual gains. However, that understates the actual achievement, as many of the better years occurred during or in the wake of the Great Depression when stocks fell and rose wildly.

On December 20th, the President signed into law the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act. The law is intended to increase retirement savings by expanding investment options and changing some of the qualified account rules. The SECURE Act may help some savers, but it comes with some negative consequences for estate planning and inheritors. Let’s look at how some of the changes affect you.

Last year was a good one for our firm. We wrote previously about adding Steve Sheflin to our investment team. We’ll likely add another capable body or two in the coming year, and are already interviewing to support our growth.

The third quarter was mediocre in terms of investment returns. Large-cap stocks in the U.S. were up 1.7%, but most other stocks lost money. Bonds actually outpaced stocks in the third quarter, with a gain of 2.3%. Real estate was the bigger winner, earning 7.3% as investors sought out more stable segments of the stock market. See full investment returns for the quarter and year-to-date in the nearby chart.

As the days grow short and foliage begins to change, our thoughts naturally are drawn to year-end financial planning. Maxing out contributions to 401(k) or IRA accounts (2019 limit is $19,000, plus $6,000 catch-up), making sure your beneficiaries are up to date on your accounts, and satisfying your Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) if you are over age 70.5, are popular items to consider. However, a few lesser known topics are also worthy of consideration:

We are excited to announce that Steve Sheflin is our new Chief Investment Officer. We’re also proud that Colby Feane was recently named as a 2019 Forty Under 40 honoree by the Rochester Business Journal.

The second quarter was another strong period for stocks, and surprisingly strong for bonds. Large-cap stocks, as represented by the S&P 500, led the way with a gain of 4.3%. Mid-cap, small-cap, and international stocks all generated respectable returns, but lagged the S&P 500.

A year and a half ago, we wrote articles on how the economy could continue to grow for three more years and the stock market could increase 30% from March 2018. We based our stock market forecast on valuations, despite the fact that many thought stocks were already overvalued.

A year and a half ago, we wrote articles on how the economy could continue to grow for three more years and the stock market could increase 30% from March 2018. We based our stock market forecast on valuations, despite the fact that many thought stocks were already overvalued.

Lately, the stock market has been a lot like the weather in Rochester, NY. If you don’t like it, you only have to wait three months for things to radically change. The fourth quarter of last year was one of the worst since the Great Depression. But we didn’t have to wait long for redemption. It arrived early this year, with a 13.6% gain in the first quarter (see market segment returns in the nearby graph).