We employ portfolio construction techniques that allow us
to manage risk without sacrificing return potential.
Exceptional Client Service
Exceptional Client Service
The true essence of investing is not what you hear from the financial media or in the marketing campaigns from large Wall Street firms. Aggressive trading and hot stock tips generally result in losses or sub-par investment gains. Rather, real investing is about discipline, patience, and smart, deliberate strategies. We strip away the hype and focus on what is real.
Armbrust is a German word meaning “crossbow”. In medieval times, an armbruster was an archer or soldier armed with a crossbow. We don’t find much use for crossbows in our current occupation, but just like our ancestors, we aim to be straight shooters in all our dealings.
News & Education
Over the past almost 15 years, diversification was a fool’s errand. Simply buying the largest, techiest, US-based stocks would have yielded the largest rewards. Why bother with small-cap stocks, international diversification, or Warren Buffett’s precious value stocks (what does that old coot know anyway)? FAANG stocks were all that were necessary to earn market-beating returns.
The field of economics is often referred to as the dismal science. Today’s environment certainly helps us understand that moniker. Inflation is running amok, interest rates are moving aggressively higher, stock and bond markets are both down considerably, and we may already be in a recession. It is not hard to paint a picture of more downside ahead. All eyes have been on the Fed lately to cure these problems.
Today, market sentiment is about as bad as it gets. The black line in the chart below shows how individuals and institutional investors feel about the prospects for the stock market. It is almost as low as it was in 2008. That is not terribly surprising given how both stocks and bonds have performed so far this year. However, sentiment tends to be a contrary indicator.
The stock market fell for a third consecutive quarter, adding to its losses for the year. After a slight rebound to start the quarter, gains reversed sharply in September as the S&P 500 fell by more than 9%, making it the worst month for the index since the Covid downturn of March 2020.
The first half of 2022 has been challenging for both stock and bond investors as persistently high inflation, anticipation of further Fed interest rate hikes, and negative GDP growth weighed on returns. The S&P 500 experienced its worst first half of the year since 1970, while bonds have experienced a loss of more than 10%.
Alternative investments, as we define them, include funds that focus on more esoteric strategies such as investments in catastrophe bonds, small private loans, currencies, commodities, private real estate, and may involve reasonable shorting or leverage. These are all things that sound risky.