We employ portfolio construction techniques that allow us
to manage risk without sacrificing return potential.
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The true essence of investing is not what you hear from the financial media or in the marketing campaigns from large Wall Street firms. Aggressive trading and hot stock tips generally result in losses or sub-par investment gains. Rather, real investing is about discipline, patience, and smart, deliberate strategies. We strip away the hype and focus on what is real.
Armbrust is a German word meaning “crossbow”. In medieval times, an armbruster was an archer or soldier armed with a crossbow. We don’t find much use for crossbows in our current occupation, but just like our ancestors, we aim to be straight shooters in all our dealings.
News & Education
I’m not really a sports guy, but a famous Wayne Gretzky quote keeps rising to the top of my mind: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Hackneyed? Yes. Insightful? Also yes. And, a particularly apt warning for stock and bond investors for today’s shifting economic environment.
Stock market returns were effectively flat for the third quarter. July and August experienced fairly strong returns, but losses in September weighed on full quarter results. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks were slightly negative this quarter, but strong performance in the first half of the year has still provided attractive year-to-date returns.
Despite a weak September, the stock market has generally fared well of late. Returns have been strong year-to-date, and over pretty much any trailing period. There have certainly been bumps in the road, such as the COVID correction in March of 2020, but the last major disruption was thirteen years ago in 2008. While rising stocks are generally good, there can be too much of a good thing. We may be getting to that point, and the same may be true for the bond market.
Social Security is a topic that is sure to arouse emotions. The “entitlement” nature of it bothers some folks. Some just don’t like the thought of not working and surrendering their retirement security to the government. Others don’t believe it will be around since the Social Security Trust Fund is basically broke. Also, deciding when to take Social Security involves some uncomfortable topics, such as life expectancy. However, Social Security is really a good thing that should be part of a deliberate retirement income strategy. Spoiler alert: it will be there for you when you need it.
ACM VidCast – The stock market ahead: Inflation, Secular Stagnation, or Stagflation? – September 2021
Our latest InvestEd Vidcast discusses the current economic environment and thoughts about inflation, economist Nouriel Roubini and stagflation, and Larry Summer’s secular stagnation. While somewhat mutually exclusive, all three are possible in the coming years. None appear to be too rosy for investors and the stock market. We discuss each scenario and how to invest through what could be a challenging economic cycle.
Investments returns were solid across all asset classes in the second quarter, as economic growth continued to rebound from last year’s pandemic. U.S. stocks, international stocks, alternative investments, and bonds all generated positive returns.