Beware of Experts Bearing Forecasts

Mark Armbruster, CFA.

I read another article recently that warned of an impending market downturn and cited Nobel laureate Robert J. Shiller. Such pieces are ubiquitous these days and Shiller quotes and interviews often feature prominently.

Shiller is a brilliant economist and academic whose contributions to the canon are well known. His accomplishments have been truly remarkable.

He has also been hailed as a soothsayer for correctly calling the bursting of the dot-com and housing bubbles in the 2000s. More recently, he has sounded the alarm about a potentially overvalued stock market based on the elevated reading of the CAPE ratio, a metric he invented.